A new round of financial crisis is coming?There is no precedent for a global recession caused by a pandemic
The global spread of the epidemic spreads the crude oil “Black Swan”. On March 9, the global market suffered a black Monday. US stocks were suddenly melted and global stock markets plunged.Behind the sharp fluctuations in the stock market is a global panic. This new coronary pneumonia epidemic has already affected the global market. Is the sharp drop in oil prices even worse?Is the global financial crisis coming again?Judging from the interviews of Sauna and Yewang, there has been no precedent in the history of the global economic recession or the continued plunge of the financial market due to epidemics. Experts believe that this epidemic is in contradiction with the background of the global crisis, and it is difficult to trigger a sustained crisis.In fact, since the development of the epidemic, several international agencies have successively lowered their global economic growth expectations.On January 20, the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook” report predicted that the global economic growth in 2020 is expected to be 3.3%; a month later, the IMF president said that this year’s global economic growth will be reduced by 0.1 excellent to 3.2%.On February 6, the well-known consulting agency IHSMarkit released a report saying that if China’s current prevention and control measures are gradually cancelled from March, then the world’s first quarter of real GDP will decrease by 0.8%, will decrease by 0 in the second quarter.5%; In 2020, the global real GDP will decrease by 0 every year.4%.On March 2, the report of the OECD (OECD) will predict the global economic growth rate from 2020 before the outbreak.9% reduced to 2.4%; if the duration of the new crown blight is prolonged and the intensity is increased, the increase in 2020 may replace 1.5%.On March 6, the Asian Development Bank released a report. According to its prediction, the outbreak will cause global economic losses of between 77 billion and 347 billion US dollars, accounting for 0% of global GDP.1% -0.4%.Among them, two-thirds of the impact falls on China.Does this mean the arrival of a new round of global financial crisis?Historically, since the industrial revolution, the crisis of the capitalist world has continued, and has affected the world. The two most destructive global crises are the Great Depression in the 1930s and the 2008 global financial crisis.The “Comparative Study of Two Global Crises” edited by Liu He pointed out that the two great crises have in common that after the major technological revolution occurred, the major technological revolution caused a great prosperity, and the great prosperity brought about a great depression.Before the outbreak of the crisis, the governments where the crisis originated had adopted extremely laissez-faire economic policies.At the same time, both crises were linked to monetary policy. Before the Great Recession, the flood of credit policies caused a stock market bubble and speculation frenzy. Before the 2008 crisis, the Fed ‘s loose monetary policy, financial deregulation and subprime loans reached unprecedentedLevel of level.In essence, the two crises are after the industrial transformation, and the new growth point of growth is to expand consumption and investment demand through debt expansion and debt transfer methods in an attempt to solve the weakening of technological driving forces, decline in industrial profits, and production.Long-term problems such as surplus are eventually forced to shrink in a crisis.It can be seen that the economic impact brought about by this epidemic is different from the previous two global crises in terms of economic background, economic policy, and economic structure.Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told Sauna and Yeenet that he has not seen a precedent of the global economic recession or the continued plunge of the financial market due to the pandemic pandemic.At present, the core factor affecting the fluctuations in the global market is the number of new cases of the epidemic.At present, the overseas epidemic situation is in an outbreak period, but with the escalation of the prevention and control measures of the governments of various countries, the trend of the epidemic situation will generally replicate the domestic model.From this perspective, the outbreak is still an exogenous short-term shock, and it is difficult to bring lasting impact on the global economy and financial markets.This is the biggest difference from the 2008 global financial crisis.However, the current overseas epidemic situation is still in the escalation stage, and countries are also taking measures to deal with it. In the short term, the global financial market will still be in a gradual transformation stage, and the downside risks are great. The security panic may continue to be at a high level.Pan Xiangdong said that from the appearance, the current global demand is shrinking rapidly and the global market growth is intensifying, which is the same as the 2008 financial crisis.However, in 2008, it was the financial crisis that led to shrinking wealth and changes in expectations, which led to the subsequent contraction of economic activity and changes in liquidity tensions, and everyone ‘s expectations followed.This time because of the epidemic, everyone’s economic activities must shrink. Only when the epidemic is completely lifted will everyone slowly resume their economic activities.Therefore, this time is completely different from the 2008 financial crisis.Sauna, Ye Wang Gu Zhijuan editor Li Weijia proofread Chen Diyan