Satellite Petrochemical (002648): Dare to enter the cascade and split for the first light hydrocarbon route C3 faucet
Core point of view: Company profile: Deeply cultivate the C3 industry chain and lay out new growth in C2.
The company is a leading company in the domestic cement industry and has built the first domestic listed company with a light hydrocarbon process route to produce the C3 industrial chain.
According to the annual report, there are currently 90 PDH, 45-inch polypropylene, 48-inch acrylic, 45 acrylate, 24 replacing high-purity acrylic, 21 replacing polymer emulsion, 9 replacing SAP, 22 replacing hydrogen peroxide, and 2.
1 Initial pigment 杭州桑拿网 intermediate capacity.
In 2020, the company’s new 36-inch acrylic and ester projects are expected to be put into production.
The company invested in a comprehensive utilization project of light hydrocarbons in the Xujing New Area of Lianyungang and entered the C2 industry chain. The first phase is expected to start production by the end of 2020.
Preliminary decomposition: The Dingzhang project enters the C2 industry chain and initially determines the advantages of locking costs.
Since the US shale gas revolution, the rapid growth of natural gas production has led to a long-term increase in US production and brought a large amount of low-cost additional resources.
Through the layered layout, the company opened up the U.S.-China intermediate logistics logistics supply chain, and built 350 vertical extension and split 杭州桑拿网 ethylene production and downstream supporting projects in Lianyungang in two phases.
We expect that due to the relationship between supply and demand, the import price of the United States will remain low, and the company’s ability to expand its split projects can be expected.
C3 industry chain: the bottom of the industry boom, PDH supporting construction cost advantages, SAP expansion opens up high value-added space.
Currently located in the bottom of the acrylic and ester industry boom, industry spreads have shrunk to historical lows, satellite petrochemicals continue to produce 36 and gradually increase market share, complete replacement of the company’s PDH support, have more starch raw materials, replace the company’s SAP sales gradually openCan further increase the added value of the acrylic acid industry chain.
We expect 19-19 results to be 1.
21 yuan / share, 1.
51 yuan / share, 2.
75 yuan / share.
Regardless of the dilution of additional shares, we expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 19-21.
75 yuan / share. Considering the bottom of the industry boom, the company’s competitive advantage is obvious. At the same time, the project is expected to be completed by the end of 2020. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, we give the company 14 times PE valuation level for 2020 performance, corresponding to a reasonable valuetwenty one.
14 yuan / share.
Preliminary project progress is expected; raw material prices fluctuate sharply; product prices fluctuate.